Eurozone investor confidence showed improvement in June, as revealed by the latest Sentix data released on 10 June 2025. The sentiment index rose to +0.2, surpassing expectations of -6.0.
Germany, in particular, exhibited an upward trend despite still having a negative sentiment index of -5.9, marking the highest level since March 2022. This suggests that the initial shock from previous tariffs is decreasing, contributing to an overall increase in confidence.
Eurozone Sentiment Index Rise
The expectations index also demonstrated growth, rising by 10.5 points to 14.3 in June compared to the prior month. This improvement signifies a positive shift in outlook among those surveyed across the Eurozone.
The data point mentioned first — the headline sentiment index rising to +0.2 — indicates that investor morale has moved just above the neutral line, after remaining in negative territory for nine consecutive months. This signals the beginning of a change in perception. While the number isn’t especially strong in isolation, its break above zero carries weight since it conveys that pessimism has started to fade. Sentiment is not uniformly strong across the bloc, but the direction is what matters here.
Germany, the Eurozone’s largest economy, remains in the red with a reading of -5.9. However, it is noteworthy that this is the least negative result in more than two years. That, when considered in context, suggests that investors are beginning to reassess risk perceptions tied to trade restrictions that previously undermined confidence. Tariff-related damage, while not fully reversed, appears to be less frightening than in the months immediately following their introduction.
Investor Sentiment Shifts
Now, taking into account that the expectations index jumped to a 14.3 reading — its best result since February 2022 — it becomes evident that investors are no longer merely reacting to stale data. Instead, they are starting to price in potential growth, stability in manufacturing, and possibly fewer headwinds for industrial production heading into summer. The recovery in forward-looking sentiment tells us more than current conditions do. And that is where attention must shift.
Over the next few weeks, we should expect heightened intraday moves that reflect market-wide sensitivity to both positive and negative news. Volatility could increase during midday European sessions in particular, following fresh macro readings like PMI and inflation updates. Any upside surprise in German orders or Eurozone corporate activity could further reinforce current trends, leading prices to test technical resistance levels for the DAX and Euro Stoxx 50 futures.
We also anticipate potential positioning adjustments in rate-derived products. If this optimism sustains itself, hawkish expectations around the ECB may re-strengthen. That shift would most likely affect the belly of the curve first, as traders reassign probabilities for cuts later in the year. Collateral margins may respond accordingly.
As front-end futures navigate this environment, pricing may be more responsive to comments from Frankfurt, especially if officials sound less committed to easing policy in upcoming speeches. Bund yields, particularly two-year tenors, may show early signs of recalibration, which will ripple through swap spreads.
This recovery in sentiment is not evenly distributed, and that asymmetry should not be ignored. Instead, we may see further divergence between core and peripheral countries, which creates opportunity for relative value positioning. Cross-market pair setups tuned to shifts in expectations — as opposed to current economic data — seem poised to perform better in the near term.
Each data point fuels a picture that is no longer tethered strictly to past weakness. We must pay close attention to revisions, guidance, and sector-specific surveys, as these may act as precursors for broader repositioning. Seems too early for exuberance, but it’s evidently too late for deep caution.