Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, និង Kazuo Ueda បានពិភាក្សាអំពីនយោបាយរូបិយវត្ថុនៅវេទិកាកណ្តាលធនាគារ ECB ឆ្នាំ 2025។ ការប្រជុំបានកើតឡើងនៅថ្ងៃទី ១ ខែកក្កដា និងរួមបញ្ចូលនូវមតិខ្លាំងៗពីប្រធាននៃ Fed, ECB, BoE, និង BoJ ។ នDuring the panel, Powell noted that the US economy was performing well, although higher inflation was expected over the summer. ECB President Lagarde mentioned the impact of foreign exchange rates on economic strength, stressing the need to remain vigilant on inflation. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey spoke about economic softening and a downward direction for rates, though policy remains restrictive. Meanwhile, BoJ Governor Ueda indicated ongoing rate hikes depending on economic conditions.

Central Bank Rates Decisions

The Fed maintained its policy rate between 4.25%-4.5% in June, projecting two rate cuts this year. The ECB lowered its rates by 25 bps, hinting at the easing cycle’s end. The BoE held its rate at 4.25%, but some MPC members favoured a 25 bps cut due to a weakening labour market. The BoJ kept its rate target at 0.4%-0.5%, with future hikes planned if conditions align with forecasts. With the central bankers laying their cards on the table at the July gathering, we’ve now got a sharper view of where policy may be heading across the core markets. While the headlines seem to focus on inflation and rate paths, the finer details lie between the lines – particularly for those watching volatility, curve moves, or expecting more decisive shifts. Powell made it clear that the Federal Reserve isn’t backing away from its cautious approach. Even with steady economic output, the expectation of more price pressure in the near term introduces uncertainty that markets need to price in. For traders, it’s not just about whether we get two cuts – it’s about when and how the Fed responds if inflation proves stickier. That affects not only rate futures and swaps but also skew and convexity in fixed income positioning. Lagarde emphasised the exchange rate’s growing influence on output and inflation. That can’t be dismissed, as the euro’s sensitivity to global yield differentials raises the prospect of further FX-driven shifts in imported prices. For those active in cross-currency swaps or euro-linked options, the ECB’s seemingly passive tone today may not hold if the euro strengthens too quickly or inflation expectations lose their anchor. Bailey, on the other hand, gave a softer macro outlook, which to us translates into higher sensitivity to incoming data. The Bank of England is sounding increasingly hesitant to hold back cuts if employment and activity metrics keep slipping. Although the rate was held steady, the dissent within the MPC matters – traders might do well to consider shorter-dated SONIA trades and implied vol levels, as pricing could recalibrate swiftly with the next labour report. Watching the balance between core CPI and wage growth will likely offer early cues about policy alignment.

Monetary Policy Divergence

Ueda’s consistency has stood out in contrast. While his reference to data-dependence isn’t new, the higher likelihood of a gradual upward shift in Japanese rates – assuming inflation and wages remain on track – introduces scope for steeper curves in JGBs. It also stirs potential for greater correlation impact in Asia-based carry trades. The range-bound nature of Japanese rates could soon give way to more directional volatility, requiring close monitoring from those in leveraged JPY strategies or long-end swap markets.

ចាប់ផ្តើមការជួញដូរឥឡូវនេះ — ចុច ទីនេះ ដើម្បីបង្កើតគណនីផ្ទាល់របស់អ្នកជាមួយ VT Markets។