សប្តាហ៍ខាងមុខ: អត្រានៅលើកំពូលកatana

ពហុក្រសែុតតាមទីផ្សារមិនមានអាទិភាពលើការបញ្ចេញប្រាក់ចំណូល។ វាមិនតម្រូវឲ្យមានកម្លាំងផងដែរ។ វាបង្កើតឡើងលើគំនិតថា លោក Jerome Powell នឹងមិនមានជម្រើសទៀតឡើយក្នុងពេលឆាប់ៗនេះចំពោះការចេញពីមុខ—ដោយចិត្តនិន្នាការពេលនេះ ហើយប្រាកដណាស់នៅពេលខាងមុខ។ ទីផ្សារបានដាក់តម្លៃឲ្យនឹងការប្រែប្រួលនយោបាយមុនពេលពួកគេកើតឡើង ជាពេលដែលសំពាធនយោបាយកំពុងកើនឡើង និងធនាគារកណ្ដាលកំពុងតាមរកនូវវិធីប្រកបគ្នាជាមួយការគ្រប់គ្រងរំលោះ និងពិតប្រាកដត្រូវបានបង្រ្កាប។

នៅផ្នែកមជ្ឈមណ្ឌលនេះគឺការប្រឈមគ្នាដែលកំពុងកើតឡើងចម្ងាយរវល់រវល់រវល់ជាមួយប្រធានាធិបតីដំបូង Donald Trump និងប្រធាន Fed ដែលកំពុងមានសភាពយន្ត Jerome Powell। ទោះបីជានេះដល់ពេលនេះ រយៈពេលប្រាក់ខែរបស់ Powell មិនដល់ឬសហសមិបបាតេដងនោះឡើយ តែការប្រកាសថាក៏ខណៈក្នុងខែនេះណានៅឆាប់ៗនេះដូចជា Trump កំពុងតែនាំមុខសុខាត្រូបនដែលតែងតែឃើញពីនេះ។

ទោះបីជា អាជ្ញាធរប្រាក់កណ្ដាលបានក្តារយកការប្រែប្រួលនៃកំណត់ផងដែរ ដោយសាលាធិនណត្តិន៏ពិតប្រាកដណាស់ទេ។ ការប្រោសប្រយោលដ៏រហ័សនឹងដកកម្លាំងផ្តាច់មុខពីលោក Powell ហើយនិងបង្ហាញការយកយ៉ាត់ជួរតម្លៃរបស់ប្រធានក៏ត្រូវបានយកឲ្យមាន។

សំពាធរបស់ Trump ត្រូវបានគាំទ្រដោយគោលបំណងមួយ៖ ការកាត់ថ្លៃដែលកាន់កាប់យ៉ាងកម្រិត។ គាត់អះអាងថាការកាត់ថ្លៃអត្រា ២ ទៅ ៣ ពាក់កណ្ដាលអាចរក្សាផ្ទេរបាននូវ $900 ពាន់លានឱ្យជួយគាំទ្រនូវការបង់ប្រាក់ទាំងអស់។ ដោយសារតែការបង្ហើបកក់យ៉ាងយូរ និងប្រធានហិរញ្ញវត្ថុ Scott Bessent បានបន្តយ៉ាងពេញចិត្ត បន្ថែមយ៉ាងកម្រងទឹកទៅទីផ្សារ បានកែស្វ័យប្រវត្តិ និងទប់ទល់ផ្នែកខាងក្រោមសូមកុំអត់ប្រាក់ក្ដៅ Trump នឹងរិះគន់ដល់កម្តៅនៃភាគីចំណូល។ ការបង់ប្រាក់ចំណូលក្នុងឱកាសទីផ្សារនេះបន្ដទៀតបានចំរូងនាង $950 ពាន់លានឱ្យមានវិធីអន្តរកម្មប្រាក់សម្រាប់ការបង្ហាត់ផ្សេងៗ និងពង្រីកការប្រាក់សម្រាប់មហាជាតិក្នុងពណ៌ភាពនេះ។

បើទោះបីយ៉ាងណា Powell កំពុងរក្សាសេវាកម្មដោយមានការប្រុងប្រយ័ត្ន។ នៅក្នុងសកម្មភាពថ្មីៗមុនសភា ប្រធានប្រពលណាស់។ គាត់បានអះអាងថាបើរេហិរសាតការកើនឡើងដំណើរការភាពសុខសន្តិភាពក្នុងការឧស្សាហកម្ម។ គាត់មានការអះអាងថា ប្រសិនបើមានមជ្ឈមណ្ឌលរេហិរសាតធ្វើឲ្យមានកំណាត់ប្រាក់រំពងរ៉ាំវិខណ្ឌកត់ឬពាគន់បេសកកម្មថា “មិនយ៉ាងឆាប់” ផ្តក់សំណុមដល់មិនឆាប់។

Fed បន្តឱ្យរំពឹងថានឹងមានការកើនឡើងនៃការបង្កើនរេហិរសាតបន្តាបូកចូលជាងនារដូវទី២ ឆ្នាំ២០២៥ គឺមិនផ្សងណាដោយសាច់ប្រាក់ប្រទាចទៀត។

ការកាត់បន្ថយពីកំពូល

ទោះបីណាសម្ដីអាជីវកម្មពេញនិយមគឺជាគន្លងរំញោចនយោបាយផងដែរ។ តាមរយៈឧបករណ៍បង្ហាញ FedWatch Tool បានរាយការណ៏ថាមានអត្រានៃការកាត់បន្ថយ ក៏មានស្ថិតិ ៩១.៥% ថានៅថ្ងៃទី 17 ខែកញ្ញា ក្រុមប្រឹក្សាជាតិ FOMC ត្រូវបានរំពឹងឲ្យមានការប្រកាន់មួយកំណត់។

The US Dollar Index (USDX) is currently testing support at 96.50, a level traders are monitoring closely. A consolidation toward 97.70 could offer short-term bearish setups if price action confirms at that upper band. However, should the dollar extend its weakness, 95.40 will be the next level to watch. The dollar’s direction is no longer being driven solely by inflation data or Fed guidance—it is increasingly tied to political pressure and perceived institutional stability.

In EUR/USD, the pair is struggling to break above resistance at 1.1770. A pause or pullback here would be natural, but if price consolidates, the 1.1605 zone becomes critical for bullish continuation patterns. Traders appear hesitant to overcommit, likely waiting for confirmation that the ECB’s easing path is not outpacing the Fed’s.

GBP/USD faced resistance at 1.3790 this week. Price action suggests a potential pullback, and if the pair consolidates downward, 1.3605 could become a viable entry for medium-term bulls. With Bank of England commentary due next week, sterling may remain directionless until fresh forward guidance is provided.

For USD/JPY, the market is split. If it drifts lower, 143.10 is the area where buyers may step in. But should it rise first, bears will be watching 145.20 and 145.75 for rejection signals. Yen strength—once a safe-haven story—is now increasingly being traded as a relative policy differential play, especially in light of Japan’s early easing cycle.

USD/CHF remains on the backfoot. Any bounce toward 0.8050 or 0.8110 is likely to face bearish pressure, provided the dollar remains weak and the Swiss National Bank continues its slow approach to loosening.

In the commodity-linked pairs, AUD/USD and NZD/USD are both setting up potential bullish trades if price consolidates near 0.6490 and 0.6455 for AUD, and 0.6005 or even as deep as 0.5730 for NZD. Sentiment remains tied to Chinese demand and broader commodity flows, but the FX reaction is more measured than enthusiastic.

USD/CAD made a run higher, breaching the 1.3754 swing high before pulling back. Sellers remain present but weak. Should price revisit 1.3810 and consolidate, that area may offer a bearish setup, particularly if oil prices stay elevated or Canadian employment data remains firm.

Turning to crude oil, price has approached the upper range with resistance at 71.80 and 73.40. Consolidation near these levels could attract sellers, but on the downside, 63.35 and 61.00 remain long-term support levels to monitor. Oil has been stuck between fundamental headwinds and seasonal demand optimism.

Gold, currently consolidating, is eyeing the 3,330 level for potential bearish setups. If price weakens, the next support sits around 3,220 or as deep as 3,175. In an environment of rising political uncertainty and softening dollar, gold is well-positioned for volatility, but not necessarily directional clarity—yet.

The S&P 500 continued its rally, climbing higher into thin air. As price advances, traders are watching 6,200, 6,400, and 6,630 as inflection points. The rally is liquidity-driven and front-running rate cuts, but the technicals remain extended. A pullback is increasingly likely if upcoming labour market data misses to the upside and dampens dovish hopes.

Bitcoin broke to a new swing high after consolidating. It now eyes 109,650 as the next key level, with 111,300 seen as the line in the sand for determining further upside. Crypto markets have benefited from the dollar’s softness and broader appetite for decentralised stores of value—but they remain vulnerable to Fed communications that surprise on the hawkish side.

Natural Gas (NG) skipped consolidation entirely and surged toward 3.65. Momentum remains strong. If the rally continues, 3.75 is the next resistance level to watch, with 4.046 being the breakout high that may act as a longer-term barrier.

The Nasdaq is riding the same bullish wave as the S&P, breaking higher and targeting 22,600, then 23,330, with a stretch toward 24,600 if tech continues to lead. While semiconductors and AI-linked stocks are propelling the move, breadth still lags.

Silver dropped from the 36.70 resistance zone and slid below 35.85. A consolidation near 36.45 may offer a bearish continuation setup. The precious metals complex is still in a wait-and-see mode, tracking inflation expectations and real yields.

Among equities, UNH is consolidating and trading well below its intrinsic value of $570, currently hovering around $275–$324.41. From a trading perspective, a break above $324.41 could offer bullish potential. From an investment angle, the stock remains undervalued, with tranche buying advisable.

Novo Nordisk (NVO) is trading around 67.80. Like UNH, its market value remains far below its estimated intrinsic value of $150, and long-term investors may look to accumulate gradually at these levels.

Ethereum is also climbing, with $2,580 highlighted as a critical area. A breakout beyond that could trigger the next wave of bullish interest, though like Bitcoin, ETH remains tethered to the broader macro narrative of rate shifts and risk appetite.

Key Events of the Week

This week’s calendar offers a tight cluster of high-impact events, concentrated around central bank commentary and labour market data, each carrying the potential to recalibrate expectations around rate cuts, both in the US and abroad.

ចាប់ផ្តើមការជួញដូរឥឡូវនេះ — ចុច ទីនេះ ដើម្បីបង្កើតគណនីផ្ទាល់របស់អ្នកជាមួយ VT Markets។