The Pound Sterling has retraced to near 1.3700 against the US Dollar, influenced by positive US JOLTS Job Openings data for May which showed 7.769 million vacancies, surpassing economists’ expectations of 7.3 million. This data has provided upward momentum to the US Dollar, with the Dollar Index moving to near 96.90 after ending a nine-day losing streak. In the UK, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey expressed concerns about the labour market as global risks cause uncertainty in economic activity. The Bank of England is expected to address these issues with possible interest rate reductions later in the year, although no specific cues for action were provided at the European Central Bank summit.

Impact Of Us Economic Data

US Dollar movements are also influenced by potential fiscal pressures, including President Trump’s tax bill and criticisms of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates. Expectations await the release of June’s ADP Employment Change data, with a forecast of 95,000 new hires, potentially impacting monetary policy perspectives. Recent market dynamics have shown the Pound Sterling fluctuating, with the 20-day Exponential Moving Average near 1.3600 supporting a bullish short-term trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index suggests positive momentum, with 1.3630 considered a support zone and 1.4000 acting as a psychological barrier for the GBP/USD pair. Following recent movement, we’ve seen the Pound lose some ground, drifting back towards the 1.3700 handle vs the US Dollar. That dip came on the back of unexpectedly strong data from the United States—namely, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which clocked in at just under 7.8 million for May. That figure beat projections by nearly half a million, giving the Dollar a fresh burst of strength and ending what had been a fairly persistent short-term downtrend in the broader Dollar Index, now stabilised close to 96.90. Governor Bailey, speaking amid ongoing uncertainty abroad, specifically referenced fears rooted in both domestic constraints and international uncertainty. His remarks on persistent difficulties in the British labour market suggest room for future policy shifts, not immediate change. It’s been made obvious that while rates are unlikely to jump soon, a softening later in the year may be a viable option—though we’ve yet to see anything firmly committed. Traders should take note that Bailey refrained from mentioning a threshold or any economic triggers for Bank action, which implies a reactive rather than proactive policy setting.

Monetary Policy Influences

On the other side of the Atlantic, fiscal noise continues to rattle the Fed’s perceived independence. With criticism mounting around Chair Powell and political pressures linked to taxation policy—particularly linked to statements by Trump in recent weeks—monetary policy feels less insulated than it ought to be. We all know that the ADP Employment Change figure tends to be a speculative pointer ahead of official nonfarm payrolls; this week’s forecast of 95,000 jobs added, if undershot or surpassed meaningfully, could affect rate expectations rather quickly. Markets are already trying to balance the Fed’s relatively patient tone with the political drumbeat for monetary easing. Looking at levels that matter—technically speaking, the GBP/USD pair continues to show a modestly supportive structure. The 20-day EMA rests near 1.3600, and price has continued to respect that as a floor during pullbacks. Momentum-wise, the RSI over the last two weeks does suggest appetite for upward movement is still there, though lately more measured. Traders would be wise to monitor the 1.3630 region—below that, risk builds. Resistance at 1.4000 remains a stretch target, but it’s subtlety in positioning just below that line that could signal where we go next. In the coming sessions, the way traders structure exposure—especially around upcoming US data prints—could determine whether the pair sustains its foothold or gives way to pressure from renewed Dollar strength. Stay nimble and watch support zones like 1.3630 very closely. Weakness through that level would demand action, especially with the broader index rebounding.

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