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US Trade Developments
The US was close to finalising a trade agreement with India, but no announcement has yet been made. A reduction in US trade deals could negatively impact oil demand. US President Donald Trump plans to notify nations about new tariff rates starting Monday. WTI Oil, a type of crude oil, is a benchmark on international markets. Known for its high quality, WTI is light and sweet due to its low gravity and sulphur content. It is sourced in the US and traded predominantly in US Dollars, meaning a weaker Dollar can make oil more affordable. OPEC’s decisions strongly influence WTI prices, with production increases generally leading to lower prices. Weekly oil inventory reports by the API and EIA also impact pricing by reflecting supply and demand changes. In the past few sessions, WTI crude bounced back towards the $65.50 mark despite a surprising move from OPEC+. The group outlined an output rise of 548,000 barrels per day starting from August—a number clearly above the 411,000 barrel increase that was previously on the table. Under typical conditions, such an uptick would apply downward pressure on futures; increased supply is not something the market often takes lightly. However, that wasn’t the case this time. We perceive that optimism surrounding trade developments, particularly coming out of Washington, helped provide some relief for oil bulls. Bessent’s remarks suggesting multiple US trade agreements are within reach gave markets something to latch onto, deflecting attention from what would have otherwise sparked renewed selling. There is particular attention being paid to negotiations between Washington and New Delhi, with expectations for a finalised pact soon—though nothing official has landed.Impact of Tariffs and Currency
That said, some risk remains. Clear warnings from the administration that new tariffs are on the table could confound the picture. Any deterioration in external trade links might drag on demand for oil, especially in industrial sectors where transportation and production use is tied directly to fuel consumption. Nervousness may pick up again if signed agreements do not materialise in quick order. Looking at currency movements, the US Dollar often acts as a second lever on oil prices. Since oil is priced in Dollars, any softening in the US currency can make contracts more attractive to non-Dollar holding investors. This element may well have contributed to the underlying support seen in crude, even as supply conditions shifted. We also watch for the weekly reports from American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Both data sets offer a snapshot into stockpile levels and act as a barometer of short-term supply-demand sentiment. Rising inventories can suggest waning consumer appetite or broader macro softness, while declines tend to indicate the opposite. That level of visibility often informs positioning by derivatives traders, especially when tied to futures volume. The production path set by OPEC+ won’t be ignored, however. There’s now a clearly telegraphed commitment to increase output, and that places more importance on demand-side factors to support prices. Stability around global growth and resilience in major economies will need to pick up some of the slack. Should consumption falter while these production increases roll out, there’s scope for momentum to shift rapidly. Given the current setup, far-dated contracts might reflect growing uncertainty. In the short term, we expect reaction to API and EIA data to stay pronounced, as traders assess whether draws or builds confirm or challenge the underlying recovery in spot prices. Fluctuations here could offer tactical opportunities, especially if paired sensibly with macroeconomic releases or shifts in tariff policy.ចាប់ផ្តើមការជួញដូរឥឡូវនេះ — ចុច ទីនេះ ដើម្បីបង្កើតគណនីផ្ទាល់របស់អ្នកជាមួយ VT Markets។
