Insights 
VT 
President Trump, in an interview with the New York Post Podcast, voiced doubts about reaching a deal with Iran. This contributed to a rise in crude oil prices.
The delayed reporting of this news allowed early listeners of the interview to benefit from the market movement. It demonstrates why resources are allocated towards obtaining timely information for market leverage.
Market Predictions And Trends
There are predictions that if the trend continues, the losses from April could be regained in the coming months. Accurate and timely information remains valuable for understanding market shifts.
Trump’s suggestion that a resolution with Tehran remains unlikely had a clear and rapid effect on oil futures, with prices climbing shortly after the podcast aired. As usual, when developments emerge that affect geopolitical risk in key producing regions, the pricing of crude reacts swiftly. Traders responded by adding to long positions, anticipating that constrained supply fears could persist. The fact that the immediate rally followed the interview—rather than delayed newswire coverage—shed light again on the edge speed provides. Investors who had access to the audio before headlines landed on terminals saw broader movement begin to stir, underlying the premium held by real-time channels.
Previous losses in April had weighed on sentiment, yet the rebound since the start of May has introduced more confidence, particularly among those positioned for extended momentum. Some oil-linked contracts that underperformed earlier in the quarter have now recovered part of their discounts. As we continue to observe the direction of crude, it becomes clearer that policymaker commentary—even when made outside official press conferences—can trigger underlying shifts in positioning. The recent case illustrates how markets are reacting less to fundamental figures alone and more to perception around stability and policy direction. Those are translating into pricing far more quickly than standard reports.
What becomes apparent when we break this down further is the growing reliance on secondary media as sources of tradable sentiment. In this scenario, the original comment came during a podcast rather than a written statement. Still, the impact on asset prices was both immediate and persistent. It suggests there’s no fixed hierarchy anymore in terms of where price-moving news can emerge. For us, that includes watching longtail sources more closely—not simply the feeds that everyone else already follows.
Positioning and Market Adjustments
From a positioning perspective, options markets have already shifted accordingly. The implied volatility curve for near-dated oil contracts steepened, indicating expectations of continued fluctuation. Trading desks are now adjusting delta exposure dynamically, particularly after the recent Premiums had widened. That shift matters to those engaging in gamma scalping or who are watching skew levels to determine whether flows are being driven by fear hedging or directional conviction.
For now, underlying flows suggest that short-term contracts are drawing higher interest while traders anticipate headline-driven days ahead. We’ve seen increased activity in call spreads tied to the next monthly expiry, with open interest picking up in contracts targeting upside returns in the $80–$85 range. That implies there’s a belief that further upside hasn’t been fully priced yet.
While broader macro indicators such as inflation and rates dominate equity discussion, commodity-linked assets remain reactive to foreign policy and supply cues. These reactions are not mere noise. Participants placing risk around these moves are doing so with trades that carry duration. In short, these are not just empty bets—they’re being reflected in term structure and cross-commodity dispersion.
As we adjust models to reflect these fluctuations more accurately in the volatility surface, the recent spike should also prompt updated assumptions in conditional correlation metrics. Particularly as WTI and Brent diverged briefly during the latest move—indicating not just a rise in prices, but a shift in relative valuation.
That divergence has implications for spread trades, especially the ones betting on mean reversion across key benchmarks. We’d suggest reviewing model inputs for those strategies to ensure respect for the new realised vol levels, which have flattened intraday but remain wide across the week.
In recent days, adjustments in positioning have also affected STIR curves slightly, as energy-driven inflationary concerns returned. That may cause temporary pressure on short-term instruments. Accordingly, those involved in leveraged futures or swaps tied to the energy complex may want to keep implied vol assumptions in check. Given the pace of the last move, stops are likely being reset more tightly.
Ultimately, what this shows us again is that edge remains wherever information meets price gaps. Responding ahead of the pack depends not just on the data itself but when we recognise its value relative to market expectations.
