សប្តាហ៍មុខ: សំពាធថ្នាក់តម្រៀប, ការបែកបាក់ក្នុងថ្ងៃក្រោយ

គ្មានការបាញ់គ្រាប់ ឆ្នាំង តែវាជោគជ័យនៅទៀត។ ការប្រកួតពាណិជ្ជកម្មរវាងអាមេរិក និងចិនបានកើតឡើងម្ដងទៀត បន្ថែមភាពតានតឹងដែលអត្រា ពាណិជ្ជកម្ម បំពាន និងការកំណត់បច្ចេកវិទ្យា ដែលមានភាពរំខានដែលធ្វើឲ្យផ្សារចេញដោយការយកចិត្តទុកដាក់។

ចលនាថ្មីៗនេះគឺមានគោលបំណងច្បាស់លាស់។ វ៉ាស៊ីងតិនបានជំរុញការបញ្ជូនឈីប AI ជាបច្ចុប្បន្ន ដែលធ្វើឲ្យចិនមិនអាចចូលដល់បច្ចេកវិទ្យាថ្មីៗនេះបាន។ ប៉ុន្តែចិននៅជាប់ក្នុងវិបត្តិ និងអវត្តមានវាតាសឱ្យធ្វើទំនាក់ទំនងវិរ ឲ្យការព្យាករណ៍ជាសកម្មភាព។

ស្ថានភាពកាន់តែតានតឹងនៅពេលប្រធានាធិបតី Trump ប្រកាសបន្ដូរអត្រាការដឹកជញ្ជូន ដូចជាការលើកឡើងពីនូវគ្រួសារល្អសម្រាប់ប្រាក់ចំណេញ ទៅកាន់ 50% ជាមួយចិននៅក្នុងគោលបំណង។ គាត់បានបញ្ជាក់ថាទំនាក់ទំនង់ក្រោមចម្ពង់នេះហើយគឺជាព្យួរ។

ផ្សារមិនចូលចិត្តភាពអន់ខ្សោយ ហើយនៅសប្ដាហ៍នេះ ការអភិវឌ្ឍន៍នេះបានធ្វើឲ្យអ្នកជួញដូរាមមុនគេស្ទាក់ស្លៀកសៀកមើលការកែបំលែង។ តើនេះជាឆ្នាំ 2019 ទាំងអស់ទៀត? ប្រហែលជាយកក្រោម ទៅប៉ុន្តែឲ្យចង្អៀត ហើយផ្ឈើរដោយការបន្ដើរ ឡើងឡើងតដែលមានឈ្មោះ កិច្ចព្រមព្រៀងជំហានទីមួយ។ ព្រមព្រៀងនេះបានធ្វើឲ្យផ្សារខាន្រនិតទើពេក ហើយអារម្មណ៍មានប្រសិទ្ធភាពពីគាំទ្រពីរក្រុមប្រពន្ធ២។ កំណត់ឡើងសម្រូវនៅថ្ងៃនេះមានធាតុជាច្រើនសដូចហ្នឹង។

ទោះបីជាការបន្តម្លេះ ការប្រកួតពីទីថ្លៃក៏សន្សំ ។ Key Movements This Week Markets are likely to remain volatile in the short term, especially across commodities, technology stocks, and safe havens like gold. Risk appetite may be reined in as investors price in higher uncertainty premiums.

US Dollar Index (USDX) continues its drift lower, testing the 99.80 region before fading slightly. If the price consolidates at this level again, traders should monitor for bearish setups targeting the next leg down toward 99.15. A breach below 98.80, followed by structure around 98.00, could pave the way for a new yearly low. However, any hawkish shift in Powell’s upcoming remarks could stall this bearish pressure temporarily.

In contrast, EUR/USD bounced cleanly from the 1.1390 zone late last week, reclaiming upside structure. If the pair consolidates above 1.1360, it sets up for a fresh bullish run. Markets remain sensitive to Thursday’s ECB rate decision, where a cut to 2.15% from 2.40% is anticipated. A dovish tone may cap further gains in the euro, despite technical strength.

GBP/USD also extended higher after consolidating near 1.3500. Should it range near 1.3485 again this week, traders can expect bullish continuation, possibly revisiting highs around 1.3600. Political risk from UK inflation pressures could muddy this path, especially as CPI prints loom.

The USD/JPY pair reversed lower, hovering near 142.60. If consolidation forms near this support, watch for further downside towards 141.00. Bearish setups gain traction especially if BOJ Governor Ueda signals further hawkishness in his Tuesday remarks. Upside resistance now stands near 143.85.

USD/CHF remains soft. A minor retracement might retest the 0.8220 zone, which is now a key level for bearish re-entry. With risk sentiment shifting rapidly, the franc’s safe-haven status could gain appeal if trade disputes deepen.

AUD/USD showed strength after testing the swing low last week. If price consolidates near 0.6455, buyers may re-enter with eyes on 0.6530. A deeper retracement to 0.6370 would still present a bullish re-entry point, especially with the Australian GDP release due midweek forecasted at just 0.40% q/q versus 0.60% prior.

NZD/USD mimicked the Aussie’s path, trading higher. If price stalls near 0.6000, bullish setups can resume, otherwise 0.5970 acts as deeper support. Kiwi traders will track China’s next move closely, given trade interdependencies.

USD/CAD dropped further with limited retracement, indicating strong loonie strength—likely supported by oil prices. If the pair consolidates near 1.3780, bears could target 1.3660 next. Canada’s own rate decision on Wednesday, forecasted at 2.50% (down from 2.75%), could halt this move if the central bank softens its tone.

Gold (XAU/USD) surged past $3325.45 before pulling back modestly. If price consolidates near 3310, bullish continuation toward 3365.74 becomes a likely outcome. Given geopolitical tensions and weak US data prints, gold remains a key hedge play this week.

WTI Crude (USOIL) is moving in a broader consolidation pattern. If price breaks $63.327, traders should be alert for a drop before a volatile upswing. Energy markets are particularly exposed to trade disruptions and would react strongly to any real sanction developments.

S&P 500 (SP500) bounced from the 5850 level. If the index breaks 5928.30, it could unlock bullish extension toward 5980. If it loses steam and posts a swing low, expect a retest of 5685. Investors are watching Powell closely—hawkish surprises could undercut current momentum.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is forming a classic consolidation pattern. If bearish price action appears near 107490, a slide toward 99660 or even 97300 could follow. The crypto market remains volatile, vulnerable to macro headlines and shifts in liquidity sentiment.

Silver (XAG/USD) rebounded after testing support. If price stalls again near 33.05, bulls may step back in. A pullback to 32.25 offers another buying zone. A confirmed break above 33.683 would likely trigger tests of 33.80, a key structural pivot.

Ethereum (ETHUSD) traded lower, and if price drops to 2415 or 2215, those levels may trigger long interest. Crypto assets are tracking risk sentiment closely, and as equities teeter, traders may seek opportunity in volatility-driven setups here.

ចាប់ផ្តើមការជួញដូរឥឡូវនេះ — ចុច ទីនេះ ដើម្បីបង្កើតគណនីផ្ទាល់របស់អ្នកជាមួយ VT Markets។